UFC 281 predictions — Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira: Fight card, odds, prelims, preview, expert picks

A ghost from Israel Adesanya’s previous returns at UFC 281 on Saturday night time. Adesanya defends his UFC middleweight champion in opposition to Alex Pereira, a vicious striker who defeated Adesanya twice within the kickboxing circuit and stays the one particular person in fight sports activities to knock him out. A narrative-rich headliner for the promotion’s return to Madison Sq. Backyard in New York Metropolis.

Adesanya, armed with a chic and stifling placing sport, builds his case as the best middleweight of all time with every profitable title protection. Adesanya will take a look at the standard of his kickboxing sport in opposition to arguably the one fighter who can meet or exceed it, former two-division Glory kickboxing champion Pereira.

Adesanya fought his method to the UFC interim middleweight and undisputed middleweight titles in his sixth and seventh UFC fights, respectively. A feat price celebrating, however one eclipsed by Pereira’s accelerated rise by way of the ranks. A primary-round KO of Sean Strickland at UFC 276 rewarded Pereira with a top-five rating and a UFC title shot in simply his fourth combat with the promotion. Adesanya — having defeated Anderson Silva, Robert Whittaker (twice), Yoel Romero, Paulo Costa, Marvin Vettori (twice) and Jared Cannonier — welcomes a tough problem.

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The ladies’s strawweight crown can be at stake on the cardboard when Carla Esparza places the belt on the road in opposition to former titleholder Weili Zhang. Esparza is in search of her first title protection in her second reign as champion — she additionally didn’t defend the title when she received it the primary time in 2014.

Plus, a light-weight fireplace combat is about for the featured bout when former title challengers Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler hyperlink up. The combat may catapult the winner into one last title shot in 2023. The cardboard additionally sees the ultimate combat of Frankie Edgar’s storied profession when he takes on Chris Gutierrez at bantamweight. And lightweights open the present on the principle card when Dan Hooker takes on Claudio Puelles.

Observe together with compete coverage of UFC 281 stay from Madison Sq. Backyard for round-by-round scoring and play-by-play of all of the motion contained in the Octagon starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

With a lot occurring on Saturday night time, let’s take a more in-depth take a look at the total combat card with the newest odds from Caesars Sportsbook earlier than we get to our workers predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 281 combat card, odds

Odds by way of Caesars Sportsbook

• Israel Adesanya (c) -210 vs. Alex Pereira +175, middleweight championship
• Weili Zhang -340 vs. Carla Esparza (c) +270, ladies’s strawweight championship
• Dustin Poirier -230 vs. Michael Chandler +190, light-weight
• Chris Gutierrez -220 vs. Frankie Edgar +170, bantamweight
• Dan Hooker -155 vs. Claudio Puelles +130, light-weight
• Renato Moicano -125 vs. Brad Riddell +105, light-weight
• Dominick Reyes -220 vs. Ryan Spann +180, gentle heavyweight
• Erin Blanchfield -400 vs. Molly McCann +310, ladies’s flyweight
• Andre Petroski -200 vs. Wellington Turman +170, middleweight
• Silvana Gomez Juarez -115 vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz -105, ladies’s strawweight
• Choi Seung-woo -165 vs. Michael Trizano +140, featherweight
• Ottman Azaitar -135 vs. Matt Frevola +115, light-weight
• Montel Jackson -200 vs. Julio Arce +170, bantamweight
• Carlos Ulberg -135 vs. Nicolae Negumereanu +115, gentle heavyweight

With such a large major occasion on faucet, the crew at CBS Sports activities went forward with predictions and picks for the principle card. Listed below are your choose makers: Brent Brookhouse (Fight sports activities author), Brian Campbell (Fight sports activities author, co-host of “Morning Kombat”), Shakiel Mahjouri (author), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Clever (senior editor).

UFC 281 picks, predictions

Adesanya vs. Pereira

Campbell: For nearly as good because the backstory is of Pereira having twice defeated Adesanya in kickboxing, together with as soon as by brutal knockout, the variations between the 2 as combined martial arts cannot be forgotten. Sure, Pereira has horrifying energy in each fingers however he is additionally nonetheless so extremely inexperienced as an MMA fighter with simply seven professional fights, together with three within the Octagon. The specter of Pereira’s placing ought to produce a targeted Adesanya who is able to counter always, in contrast to the extra unfastened, level fighter he has turn out to be of late when contenders aren’t keen to go for broke in opposition to him. Pereira ought to be lots keen, which is able to imply Adesanya should be at his absolute best. However the deeper the combat goes, the extra unknown questions emerge for Pereira, together with every part from his stamina and floor sport to his skill to make changes. 

Brookhouse: Regardless of Pereira having two kickboxing wins over Adesanya, Adesanya is the higher striker on a technical degree. Pereira is among the pound-for-pound heaviest hitters within the sport, although, and somebody who’s going to be unwilling to permit Adesanya to sit down again and level combat. The thoughts video games may additionally come into play, although I consider that might be one thing that results in Adesanya seeking to “make some extent” reasonably than changing into gunshy. The issue I see for Adesanya is that partaking in placing is uniquely harmful for him on this combat. Sure, he’s higher technically, however MMA gloves not solely result in more durable pictures from Pereira but additionally to extra problem in defending in opposition to these pictures coming at you. An Adesanya win is the extra probably end result, however this feels just like the form of combat the place the challenger has a effectively above common likelihood of pulling off the upset. It solely takes one shot from Pereira to finish this combat whereas Adesanya must be on level always.

Mahjouri: It appears like a while since siding with Adesanya required such warning. Pereira has the extra highly effective kickboxing and is brimming with confidence having defeated Adesanya in two earlier kickboxing matches. Adesanya is the extra elusive striker, using feints, footwork and counterattacks that disarm most opponents. Pereira has confirmed much more hittable within the Octagon to this point, which ought to work to the champion’s benefit. On the floor, Pereira’s KO of Adesanya of their second kickboxing combat is regarding. A full watch by way of of that combat, nonetheless, reveals that Adesanya was having his means with Pereira earlier than the end. An Adesanya determination win or Pereira KO appears most probably, let’s facet with the previous.

Esparza vs. Zhang

Campbell: Hardly ever earlier than has a two-time champion driving a six-fight win streak been this aggressively dismissed by seemingly everybody heading right into a title protection. However whether or not it is honest or not that followers proceed guilty Esparza for the way boring her title victory over Rose Namajunas was of their Could rematch, few expect her to exit the Octagon nonetheless sporting her 115-pound belt. The reason being largely due to how a lot better Zhang has appeared to have gotten as a fighter since shedding her title to Namajunas. Zhang, the primary Chinese language-born UFC champion, rebuilt her physique and improved her wrestling abilities sufficient to see oddsmakers set up her as practically a 4-1 favourite. Contemplating 4 of Esparza’s six current wins featured disputed scoring, Zhang seems to be the good choose for good cause.

Mahjouri: Zhang is a powerhouse amongst strawweights. Few within the division rival her skill to land crushing blows. She actually has the placing edge in opposition to Esparza however so do many of the high contenders. A look at Zhang’s 60% takedown protection is regarding, however I count on her coaches have put numerous emphasis on her wrestling to pair along with her bodily power. (Hopefully) improved wrestling, pure power and head-rattling energy ought to lead Zhang to victory.

Poirier vs. Chandler

Campbell: If you danger all of it from the opening bell for the primary 5 minutes of each combat, you’re going probably win simply as a lot as you lose. Chandler’s thrilling 2-2 run since making his UFC debut final 12 months appears to help that. However the former three-time Bellator MMA champion’s blitzkrieg method may additionally be his finest likelihood at attending to the chin of Poirier, whose accumulation of injury over an unimaginable profession will sooner or later catch as much as him. Even when Chandler follows by way of on his menace to play it safer than regular (by wrestling) given {that a} title shot might be in play for the winner, the fireworks followers count on ought to nonetheless be there finally. Chandler practically knocked out then-champion Charles Oliveira in 2021 and seems poised for a doable second run on the belt.

Brookhouse: Sure, the logic that “sooner or later” Poirier might lose all punch resistance is cheap. However there is not any proof that that day has come. Chandler, in the meantime, has a notoriously crackable chin, particularly for somebody who fights within the type that he does. It nonetheless appears like a minor miracle that he made it to the scorecards in opposition to Justin Gaethje. Chandler was dropped by a badly pale Tony Ferguson and simply will get hit too cleanly, too typically to select him in opposition to somebody with the precision and total gameplan of Poirier. Chandler all the time has the very definition of a “puncher’s likelihood” however his higher path to victory could also be to be a wrestler first, striker second. I do not see him following by way of on that plan as soon as Poirier begins to land. Chandler probably goes proper to his behavior of overly partaking with wild strikes that may go away him open to crisp pictures from Poirier earlier than a stoppage.

Clever: There’s some sturdy narratives on either side of this matchup. Poirier is coming off a second title defeat when he continues to get ever so near a championship. Chandler, in the meantime, reveals that he nonetheless has the flashes of brilliance with knockout energy, however comes up brief in large moments as effectively. The combat will likely be determined by whoever leaves himself uncovered on entry with boxing mixtures — except Poirier decides to lean on his wrestling sport. Individuals consider that Poirier’s chin could also be prepared to offer at any second, however Chandler has the identical points. I will take the fighter with extra methods to win the combat — and extra willingness to make the most of his full sport.

Who wins Adesanya vs. Pereira? And the way precisely does every combat finish? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC 281, all from the incomparable skilled who’s up greater than $13,000 on MMA previously three years, and discover out.